Our focus is on forward-looking uncertainty measures that are available in near real-time. In this column, we present early evidence on the impact of the conflict in Ukraine on economic uncertainty using daily aggregate indices as well as firm-level measures from the Decision Maker Panel survey. Finally, the conflict has sparked a massive refugee crisis, with over four million Ukrainians fleeing their country (at the time of writing).1 All of this is likely to contribute towards greater uncertainty in the economy, among businesses, households, and financial markets. In addition, sanctions and trade restrictions have been imposed on Russian banks, businesses, and individuals (Berner et al. Commodity prices, including energy, have increased sharply as uncertainty about supply disruptions has grown (Bachmann et al. The Russia/Ukraine conflict has sent shockwaves throughout the world economy. Editors' note: This column is part of the Vox debate on the economic consequences of war.
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